Tsunami Preparedness

Tsunami alarm: desi model or global club?

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Ashok B Sharma analyses how technology can deal with a tsunami-like crisis

Posted online: Monday, January 03, 2005 at 0000 hours IST

Is technology the ultimate solution? Could a monitoring and warning system have prevented the large-scale destruction that one witnessed last week? Why didn’t India install a warning system so far? These are among the questions being asked, both within and outside the scientific community, post-Tsunami. Even as answers are few and far between, Tsunami has come as a wake-up call for the government. While relevance of technology in predicting Tsunami is one of the key issues being debated right now, a way forward is clearly being chalked out.

For one, the Union ministry of science and technology is planning to hold a brainstorming session sometime this month with National Geophysical Research Institute, National Institute of Oceanography and Department of Ocean Development for devising an appropriate Tsunami warning system. Also, steps are being chalked out to strengthen the Indian station in Antarctica, Maitri, to monitor seismicity in and around Antarctica and Indian Ocean.

Commitment has come from the minister for science and technology and ocean development Kapil Sibal already. He is on record saying that proper logistics for monitoring and warning will be put in place, even though Tsunami is a rare occurrence.

The initiatives that the establishment wants to roll out include undertaking deep ocean assessment and reporting system, coastal barometry, and increasing the number of data buoys in the surrounding seas from existing 20 to 30. The buoys are expected to monitor 6 km below the ocean surface, by connecting the aquatic tidal gauges to a satellite. The project cost: a mere Rs 125 crore!

Meanwhile, there’s a difference in view as far as joining the Tsunami warning system in the Pacific is concerned.

For instance, the US Geological Society (USGS) has alleged that the Tsunami-hit countries has not put in place any warning system for mitigating the disaster. USGC spokesperson Carolyn Bell is reported to have said: “We support the Tsunami warning system in the Pacific only. Of course this earthquake was not in the Pacific Ocean.” According to her, creating a Tsunami warning centre in the Indian Ocean will be a challenge. “This crosses so many countries and so many boundaries in that part of the world and the warning system would have to be so geographically diverse. We’re talking about educating people to what the warning means, what you have to do,” she says.

India thinks differently. Mr Sibal says that India will not be a member of the Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre, a body set up exclusively for the Pacific Rim countries. “Being a member of this body will not help us as the mandate of the body is for the specific region. Our seismic zone is Indo-Australian plate as distinct from the Pacific plate. We should therefore ask for relevant data from them and construct our own model for monitoring and forecast,” he says. The minister also said that India will network with Indonesia, Thailand and Myanmar in future for exchange of relevant data. Whatever the arrangement, experts argue that a suitable monitoring system could have mitigated some of the colossal damages. Though earthquakes and volcanic eruptions cannot be predicted on a short-term basis, the Tsunami effect, which takes longer time to reach distant places, can be predicted at ease, they say.

But, the Indian government insists that the country did not opt for such a system as Tsunami has not been a frequent occurrence in the region. According to Mr Sibal, the first Tsunami killed the forces of Greek invader Alexander the Great, and the second Tsunami occurred in 1883. Secretary in the department of ocean development Harsh K Gupta agrees that Tsunami is rare.

Noted geologist, Dr George Pararas-Carayannis, counters: "Destructive Tsunamis are not uncommon in the Bay of Bengal or along the Sunda Trench. On June 26, 1941, a devastating earthquake in the Andaman Sea, with a Richter magnitude greater than 8.0 generated a major Tsunami that killed more than 5,000 people on the east coast of India. However, at that time, the media incorrectly attributed the deaths and damages to storm surges rather than to a Tsunami generated by an earthquake. Many more deaths must have occurred but were not reported."

He adds that the region where the earthquake took place marks the boundary where great tectonic plates of India and Australia collide with the Sunda and the Eurasian plates. It is the same place where large catastrophic earthquakes and volcanic explosions and Tsunamis have occurred for millions of years.

Coming to the basics, the Tsunami of December 26 is the fourth largest trembler in the world since 1900 and Asia's worst earthquake since 1970. The Tsunami effect touched even the east coast of Africa on the same day. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Tsunami effect took about two hours to reach Port Blair in Andaman & Nicobar Islands and
three-and-half hours to reach the Chennai coast.

For those who joined in late, Tsunami is a Japanese word, pronounced as "tsoo-nah'-mee". `Tsu' means harbour and `nami' means wave. The phenomena, Tsunami, is a series of large waves of extremely long wavelength or activity near the coast or in the ocean.
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US-based experts predict another tsunami

http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=78412

ASHOK B SHARMA
OUR ECONOMY BUREAU
Posted online : Friday, December 31, 2004 at 0000 hours IST

NEW DELHI, DEC 30: The government has been on the horns of a dilemma after some foreign experts predicted another tsunami.

The home ministry has issued an alert to five affected states and Union territories.

It has also issued a warning to Lakshdweep, so far untouched. Following the alert notice, the affected states are evacuating people from the coast.

But Union minister for science and technology and ocean development Kapil Sibal has denounced these predictions as ‘hogwash.’

Mr Sibal told mediapersons, “An agency manned by four persons called Tera Research based in Oregon, Portland, USA sent a forecast of a fresh tsunami to our meteorological department at 6.00 am.” This was forwarded by his ministry to the home ministry without comment.

Questioned why his ministry did this, Mr Sibal said, “Our duty was to pass on the information and we did that.”

He said that he had asked the Hawaii-based Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre to confirm the forecast. Their answer: “There is no such concern”. ISRO has also been asked to stay in touch with the centre.

AK Rastogi of the natural disaster management division under the home ministry quoted a forecast of a fresh tidal wave from another agency, the Australian Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre. He said that his surfing of the net had convinced him that “there is a case for concern”.

The death toll in the country has risen to 7,368.
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IARI to study salinity ofsoil, water in tsunami-hit states

IARI centenary celebrations begins today

ASHOK B SHARMA
OUR ECONOMY BUREAU
New Delhi, Dec 31

Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI) has decided to send a team of experts to study soil and water salinity problems in the coastal states affected by the tsumani tidal wave.

"We need to find out the salinity problem and identify appropriate saline resistant seeds for sowing. Our team will also study salinity problems in potable water and suggest remedies," said IARI director Dr S Nagarajan.

Briefing mediapersons in the capital on Wednesday, Dr Nagarajan said there is a need for research on global climate change and effective management of natural resources. He stressed the need for organic farming, efficient use of energy and water and encouragement of zero-tillage of soil.

He said: "It has been field-tested that organic farming of rice and sugarcane produces the same yield or more than that done through chemical agriculture."

He that the prime concern before the country is not that of food security, but of ensuring nutritional security and management of natural disasters. He said that deaths due to natural calamity exceed those due to starvation.

"The IARI will be celebrating a year-long centenary celebration in 2005. The new focus of IARI will be on nutritional security, organic farming and management of natural disasters. The centenary celebrations will be formally launched on January 1, 2005," he said.

Dr Nagarajan also stressed on crop diversification in lieu of mono-cropping. He said that disciplines like farm laws, patents and intellectual property rights, environmental issues will be incorporated in the new curriculum of IARI. In the coming days, issues like sanitary and phytosanitary measures and other non-tariff bariers are likely to dominate global trade and hence the country needs to gear up to meet this challenge, he said.

Rabi crop prospects bright ::

IARI director Dr S Nagarajan has said that the prospects for the standing
rabi (winter) crops are bright. Area under rapeseed and mustard crops has
increased and there has been a varietal replacement of seeds in these crops.
Though there is some decline in the acreage under wheat in some parts of the country, output is expected to be reasonably good on account of higher yield
in north west India. He said that the prevailing fog is good for crops.
Wheat harvest will be good if the temperature does not rule above normal
till the first week of March.
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EARLIER Reports :- (on Two days after the incident)

Tsunami effect: Calamity Relief Fund gets Rs 500 cr more

http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=78182

ASHOK B SHARMA
OUR ECONOMY BUREAU
Posted online: Wednesday, December 29, 2004 at 0000 hours IST

NEW DELHI, DEC 28: The National Calamity Relief Fund (NCRF) has been augmented by Rs 500 crore to deal with Sunday’s tsunami devastation. Coastal Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Andaman & Nicobar islands and Pondicherry are the worst affected.

On Tuesday there were also reports of fresh tremors in different parts of the affected areas. The Union government has urged the states to gear up their machinery to meet the situation.

Many Union ministers have decided to donate one month’s salary to the Prime Minister’s National Relief Fund. Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh has appealed to people to contribute generously to the fund and has also requested government employees to contribute at least a day’s salary. Some state governments like Karnataka, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Delhi have announced cash relief for the affected states. Corporate houses have also responded to the call of the Prime Minister.

According to official estimates, 7,400 people have died in the country. The government has announced an ex-gratia payment of Rs 1,00,000 to the next of the kin of the deceased from PM National Relief Fund. About 40,000 deaths have been reported in four other countries — Sri Lanka, Maldives, Indonesia and Thailand. UNDP has announced an assistance of $500,000 for South Asia, out of which $100,000 is for India. UNICEF is active in providing relief assistance in Tamil Nadu.

India has decided to rescue the immediate neighbours which are severely affected.

Sri Lanka and Maldives have urged India for help. The Sri Lankan government has requested for naval assistance to take its ships to Indian coast. India has despatched four naval ships with relief assistance to Trincomali and Colombo.

One ICG Donier aircraft from Thiruvananthapuram has been sent to Maldives to assess the damage. India is air-dropping food packets in that country. The Maldives government has not been able to assess the actual damage.

Out of 7,400 reported dead in the country, 3618 are in Tamil Nadu alone. The Indian Coast Guard (ICG) has deployed a ship in Haldia in West Bengal for relief and rescue operations.

The Union government has directly taken up the onus of rescue and relief operations in the Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Pondicherry, which are directly under its administration.

Andaman & Nicobar islands:

The worst affected islands in the country are Car Nicobar and Great Nicobar due to excessive innundation. Communication links and water supply are still disrupted. Two jetties of coast guard and one civil jetty have been damaged and submerged. The Port Blair runway has developed cracks and only 5000 ft is usable. About 2000 feet of Carnic Air Force runway is submerged. According to reports, 73 people including 65 defence personnel and their families died in Car Nicobar and about 1,000 people are reported missing.

The A&N administration has asked for two additional flights one each from Kolkata and Chennai for evacuating stranded tourists, essential commodities and clothings, 500 containers for transportation of water, 10,000 tents, portable diesel pumps for draining out water, 200 portable generator sets, mobile sattelite phones and torches and augmentation of telecom facilities by deputing BSNL experts from Kolkata.

Pondicherry:

As a result of rise in sea level up to several metres, coastal areas in Pondicherry and Karaikal region have been inundated. In Karaikal, a bridge along the Arasalar river was damaged and communication with the southern part of the region was affected. The reported death toll in Karaikal is 355 and 74 in Pondicherry.
A three-member Central health team has been despatched to Pondicherry. Health teams from the JIPMER, Pondicherry, have also been pressed into action.

Andhra Pradesh:

Significant tidal surge was experienced in Krishna, Guntur, Prakasam and Nellore districts. The death toll in the state has gone up to 85 - (34 in Krishna district, 31 in Prakasam district, 10 in Nellore district, one in Guntur district and 8 in West Godavari district). About 922 persons, mainly fishermen, are reported missing along with 810 boats.

Two ICG ships have been deployed in Nellore and Visakhapatnam. The state government has sought assistance of ICG and navy for search and rescue operations of fishermen.

Kerala:
About 149 people are reported to have died in the state and about 300 people are stranded in a narrow strip of island between the coastal region of the backwater off Oachira in Alappuzha district. Naval team has been despatched for rescue operations.

Tamil Nadu:
Tamil Nadu is the worst affected state in the mainland. The death toll in the state has gone up to 3,618 (2,069 in Nagapatham, 353 in Cuddloor, 96 in Kancheepuram, 165 in Chennai, 542 in Kanyakumari, 4 in Triuneveli, 34 in Villupuram, 29 in Thiruvarur, 2 in Thoothukkudi, 1 in Tanjavur and 2 in Ramnathapuram). The state government has evacuated 1,000 persons from the Vivekanada Rock Memorial. The Union government has sent a team of doctors and engaged 400 CRPF personnels for relief operations.