ELECTION NIGHT CHEAT SHEET As promised, here's your hour-by-hour guide to election night 2004.

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Friday, October 22, 2004
 
ELECTION NIGHT CHEAT SHEET As promised, here's your hour-by-hour guide
to election night 2004.

There are bound to be at least a few mistakes and misjudgments buried
in here. (Spot one? E-mail us.) On the whole, though, this run-down
should give readers an idea of what to expect as the evening of
November 2 unfolds.

Three preliminary notes:

1) For the purposes of this post, best-case results for a candidate are
results in which he wins every state he has a realistic chance of
carrying, according to recent polls.

Expected results are the results each candidate's camp is counting on
to provide the margin of victory. (These numbers are based on
CONTRAPOSITIVE's own research and analysis, rather than public
statements by either campaign.)

Finally, the needs category refers to the totals required for each
candidate to maintain a realistic chance of ultimately emerging as the
winner.

2) Results in many of the battleground states will likely be slow to
trickle out, and in some states it may be hours (or weeks!) until we
know the winner. So the hour-by-hour tally below is very much a
theoretical snapshot. The actual counting of votes is likely to be a
more fluid process, especially if the numbers are close.

3) All times are EST.

CANARY IN THE COALMINE: 7PM
58 Electoral Votes in play
Polls close in Georgia, Kentucky, Indiana, South Carolina, Vermont and
Virginia. (Some Florida and New Hampshire polling stations close as
well.)
ANALYSIS: If it takes more than a few minutes for the networks to call
Indiana or Virginia for Bush, that may bode well for John Kerry.
And if Daniel Mongiardo or Inez Tenenbaum are able to keep the numbers
close in early returns from their respective Senate races in Kentucky
and South Carolina, it means the Democrats have a chance of taking over
the Senate.

Having learned from past mistakes, the networks are unlikely to have
much to say about the early returns from New Hampshire or Florida. And
CONTRAPOSITIVE doesn't expect any reputable news organizations to call
the Sunshine State one way or the other till at least 8pm.

But if word trickles out that John Kerry is ahead in New Hampshire, we
may be in for a long evening. By contrast, if Bush pulls ahead in that
state, Florida starts to look like a "must" for Kerry.

BOTTOM LINE:
Bush expects: 55
Bush needs: 55

Kerry best-case: 16
Kerry expects: 3
Kerry needs: 3


EARLY WARNING: 7:30PM
83 Electoral Votes in play
Polls close in Ohio and West Virginia.
ANALYSIS: This will be our first real sense of where the presidential
election stands. Ohio's results may trickle in slowly, but the
candidate who winds up with that state in his column will be breathing
a lot easier, and the candidate who loses it will have almost no margin
for error.

If Kerry winds up ahead in West Virginia, Karl Rove will be cursing the
repeal of steel tariffs. The phrase "one-term president" will likely
find its way into the thoughts of senior administration officials even
before it passes through Dan Rather's lips.

BOTTOM LINE:

Bush expects: 80
Bush needs: 75

Kerry best-case: 41
Kerry expects: 23
Kerry needs: 3


SERIOUS BUSINESS: 8PM
260 Electoral Votes in play
Polls close in Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of
Columbia, Florida, Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts,
Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma,
Pennsylvania and Tennessee.
ANALYSIS: A lot to keep track of here.

But first and foremost: If Bush wins New Jersey, it's over. Find a bad
movie on cable, break out the booze, and cry yourself to sleep.

And in Pennsylvania: If Kerry is down here, it'll be wise to at least
keep the booze close at hand.

Also of note: Keep an eye on the Senate race in Oklahoma--if Rep. Brad
Carson is unable to give the Democrats a pick-up here, the Republicans
will almost certainly retain control of the Senate.

And in Florida, Betty Castor's numbers will be another indication of
where Democratic prospects for control of the Senate stand. Not quite
as important as a Carson victory for Democrats, but close.

Speaking of Florida: Both candidates can win the election without
picking up this state. The task is harder for Bush--especially if he
doesn't win in New Hampshire.

So, to be clear: If, sometime between 8pm and 9pm, Kerry gets the call
in both Ohio and Florida, it means George W. Bush is headed for the
door. At that point only the Supreme Court will be able save him.

BOTTOM LINE:

Bush best-case: 201
Bush expects: 161
Bush needs: 143

Kerry best-case: 179
Kerry expects: 150
Kerry needs: 91


BREATHER: 8:30PM
281 Electoral Votes in play
Polls close in Arkansas and North Carolina.
ANALYSIS: All things being equal, if Kerry is able to keep either of
these states close, the Bush team will have reason to sweat.
BOTTOM LINE:

Bush best-case: 222
Bush expects: 182
Bush needs: 164

Kerry best-case: 190
Kerry expects: 150
Kerry needs: 112


CRUNCH TIME: 9PM
431 Electoral Votes in play
Polls close in Arizona, Colorado, Louisiana, New Mexico, New York,
Michigan, Minnesota, Rhode Island, Texas, Wisconsin and Wyoming.
ANALYSIS: At this point, the election could be over--but only if George
W. Bush has won contested states (Arkansas, Florida and Ohio) earlier
in the evening. (In theory, Kerry could also wrap up the election at
9PM, but he would need to have won North Carolina, Virginia and West
Virginia to do it--far less likely.)

A few minutes after 9PM, though, in all likelihood, the result will
still be up for grabs. All eyes will then turn to Michigan. If Kerry
wins there (as polls suggest he should) attention will shift to
Minnesota and New Mexico.

If the Democratic nominee has taken Pennsylvania and at least one of
New Hampshire and Maine--and if things are either split or not yet
decided in Ohio and Florida--the contest now enters the nailbitting
phase on both sides.

Of the two toss-up states with polls closing at 9PM, Bush has the
better shot in New Mexico. A win there could take him to the brink of
victory.

By contrast, a Kerry upset in Colorado or Arizona would be a
catastrophe for the Bush campaign. Expect smoke to pour out of the ears
of conservative pundits if Republicans lose in either of those states.

If Kerry is able to build a big lead early in Minnesota, that will bode
well for the Democrats in Wisconsin--which (at least if Kerry is on the
plus-side) is likely to be tighter. An even race in Minnesota could be
a bad sign for Kerry.

On the Senate side, with the polls closing in South Dakota and
Colorado, we should have a reasonably good idea of where control of
that body stands. If Tom Daschle and Ken Salazar are both able to
squeak by, the Democrats should have a shot at gaining control. Without
those victories, forget about it.

Finally, on the presidential front: If things remain close (which is to
say, if Bush and Kerry are both near their targeted tallies of 257 and
200, respectively) you will want to keep an eye on the referendum to
amend Colorado's state constitution. (Note: Totals below assume that
this proposal fails.) You may not have heard much about it yet, but you
might just be in for a crash course.

BOTTOM LINE:

Bush best-case: 372
Bush expects: 257
Bush needs: 239

Kerry best-case: 279
Kerry expects: 200
Kerry needs: 181


MOMENT OF TRUTH: 10PM
451 Electoral Votes in play
Polls close in Iowa, Montana, Nevada and Utah.

ANALYSIS: We will probably know who the next President is sometime
before 11PM--or not until December.

But even if things remain close, it's likely that one of the two camps
will have lost a state it expected to win by this point. Iowa and
Nevada will are the last solid opportunities for either side to pull an
upset.

Unless Kerry has won both Florida and Ohio or pulled off a surprise
somewhere (e.g. in Missouri, or Arkansas) earlier in the evening, he
will need Iowa.

Similarly, unless President Bush has won both Florida and Ohio or
pulled upsets of his own (e.g. in Michigan or Pennsylvania), Nevada
will be essential for his chances.

To put it in even starker terms: If at this stage Bush doesn't have 259
actual or potential electoral votes--potential wins in states with
closed polls but no clear victor--he is extraordinarily unlikely to win
re-election.

If at this point Kerry has accumulated fewer than 193 actual or
potential electoral votes, for Democrats it will be all over but the
crying.

BOTTOM LINE
Bush best-case: 392
Bush expects: 276
Bush needs: 259

Kerry best-case: 291
Kerry expects: 206
Kerry needs: 193


END OF THE ROAD: 11PM
535 Electoral Votes in play
Polls close in California, Hawaii, Idaho, North Dakota, Oregon and
Washington.

ANALYSIS: By now we will either have a winner, or we'll be waiting for
confirmation from uncontested states. Or David Boies will be headed
somewhere on a plane.

President Bush does have a chance of sneaking past Kerry in both Oregon
and Washington. But if he's counting on those states for his margin of
victory at 11PM, it means he's in deep, deep trouble.

On the other hand, if the election is tight all night long, we could
wind up having to wait all the way until 1AM for Alaska, with the
country's final three electoral votes, to seal the deal for Bush.

Not a pleasant prospect.

Also at 1AM, Democrats will find out whether Tony Knowles has given
them a once-in-a-generation Senate pick-up in Alaska. Depending on what
happens elsewhere, a Knowles win will either be icing on the cake, or
an almost worthless consolation.

BOTTOM LINE:

Bush best-case: 399
Bush expects: 283
Bush needs: 266

Kerry best-case: 368
Kerry expects: 294
Kerry needs: 270

[Clarification: Bush needs only 266 electoral votes at 11pm because he
is sure to win Alaska's three votes later in the evening. If the night
ends in a 269-269 tie, the election will be thrown into the
Republican-controlled House of Representative, where Bush is just about
certain to triumph.]


Sources:

The Green Papers: 2004 Poll Closing Times.
Electoral Vote Predictor.

Find an error? E-mail us.


// posted by Contrapositive @ 2:24 PM Comments (7) | Trackback (1) 

CONTRAPOSITIVE is edited by Dan Aibel. Dan is Resident Playwright at
Majestic Rayon Corporation, a manufacturer of rayon-based yarns,
nylon-based fabrics, and one-act plays.

http://contrapositive.blogspot.com/2004/10/election-night-cheat-sheet-
as-promised.html


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