Bush is a man who has defied all expectations, including his own. There was no way he should have won the presidency four years ago. The economy, although headed for a recession, was bringing prosperity to investors and workers alike. The Clinton-Gore team had eliminated deficit spending and accumulated a surplus. What remained of Ronald Reagan's national debt was gradually being paid off.
We were at peace. All the social indicators, such as crime rates and unwanted pregnancy rates, were looking good. The trends were so favorable there was little reason to believe the voters would reject a member of the team that brought us all that good news.
But that's exactly what the voters did. Vice President Al Gore got dumped in favor of an inexperienced and untested rookie from Texas and points East.
Since taking office, Bush has done nearly everything wrong. Before Sept. 11, 2001, he did nothing to protect us from terrorist attacks, though he had been warned repeatedly and specifically that such attacks were coming.
He lowered taxes while overspending. He led us into an unnecessary war that only dreamers believe can be won. He squandered the surplus left by the Clinton-Gore team and built a new record for national debt. He completely turned his back on science, ignoring man-made climate change and restricting medical research.
The list is painfully long. Those are just some of the low points.
So, did the voters throw the bum out? No, they reelected him by a safe margin.
Now that he's in his final term, will Bush continue to pander to the lowest common denominator, or will he rise above his pettiest instincts and become the force for good he's capable of being? Will he respond to the demands of the far right or the prayers of the middle and the left?
Will he be predictable or will he fool us once again?
The predictable Bush would expand America's quest to control the world's waning supplies of oil. At the moment (subject to change), it looks like Iran will be our next victim. At the appropriate time, we will be told that Iran has become an intolerable threat and must be muzzled. America's list of nations needing destruction will continue to look remarkably like Israel's.
A predictable Bush will soon prove to be his father's son when he breaks his solemn campaign promise to not institute a military draft. Read his lips. They're moving? Words are coming out? He's a politician? He's lying.
Bush will continue his quest to privatize Social Security. He appears not to know why Social Security was created in the first place. It was created because, in a competitive capitalistic society with its ups and downs, private investment for retirement proved to be disastrous for too many people. Social Security provides a safety net for the unskilled or unlucky. Privatize its investments and you have a Los Vegas craps table, with a few winners and a lot of losers.
Bush will continue to push for tax breaks to benefit people in his and his family's economic situation.
If the air in Houston gets dirty enough, or if Bush's dude ranch in Crawford is flooded by the melting polar ice caps, Bush might notice some problems with the environment, but don't count on it. The predictable Bush will continue to put corporate profits above human life.
Bush will continue to use homosexual men and women as the scapegoats he needs to satisfy the bigoted portion of his political base. At the same time, that portion of his base will be yapping at their hero for not being even more repressive. Those folks won't be happy until we return to stocks, floggings and witch trials.
Bush judicial appointments will become more reactionary, thus sentencing the United States to a period of unprecedented judicial Dark Ages. The prison-building industry, inspired by Ronald Reagan, continued by Bush (41), and greatly accelerated by Bill Clinton, will prosper.
In a surprise move, the U.S. Supreme Court, guided by precedent, will uphold Roe v. Wade. However, this prediction is subject to change if Bush is first able to pack the court with activist right-wing judges.
In summary, the predictable Bush will, in his second term, be even more outrageous than he was in his first. But there is the chance, however slim, that his innate sense of decency will emerge, now that he has nothing to prove, and he will become a president who truly serves his people.
That's a happy thought, but don't bet on it.
POSTSCRIPT: Take heart, boys and girls. After Watergate the Republican Party was in such disarray that it couldn't even get good old Gerald Ford elected over Jimmy Carter.
And Republicans in Minnesota were so disheartened that they changed the name of their party (to Independent-Republican).
The worm turns, the pendulum swings.
The South has risen again.
But sooner or later morning will return to America.
Harley Sorensen is a longtime journalist. His column appears Mondays. E-mail him at harleysorensen@yahoo.com.
© 2004 San Francisco Chronicle
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