100,000 “Excess” Civilian Deaths Since Iraq Invasion

Institute for Public Accuracy
915 National Press Building, Washington, D.C. 20045
(202) 347-0020 * http://www.accuracy.org * ipa@accuracy.org
___________________________________________________

PM Friday, October 29, 2004

Study Finds 100,000 "Excess" Civilian Deaths Since Iraq Invasion

The leading medical journal The Lancet has just published a study on
civilian mortality in Iraq since the invasion. See
for the full study and an accompanying editorial.

LES ROBERTS, les@a-znet.com
Co-author of the report, Dr. Roberts is an epidemiologist at the Johns
Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. He said today: "Making
conservative assumptions, we think that about 100,000 excess deaths or more
have happened since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Violence accounted for most
of the excess deaths, and air strikes from coalition forces accounted for
most violent deaths. We have shown that the collection of public-health
information is possible even during periods of extreme violence. Our
results need further verification and should lead to changes to reduce
non-combatant deaths from air strikes."

Roberts added:

* "Violence was the primary cause of death after the invasion; violent
deaths were widespread, reported in 15 of 33 clusters surveyed, and
were mainly attributed to coalition forces (predominantly air strikes).
Most individuals reportedly killed by coalition forces were women and
children. The risk of death from violence in the period after the invasion
was 58 times higher than in the period before the war. The major causes of
death before the invasion were heart attack, stroke, and chronic illness."

* "We did the survey to investigate the effect of the Iraq war on civilian
deaths by comparing mortality during the 14.6 months before the March 2003
invasion with the 17.8 months after it. We interviewed a total of 988
households from 33 randomly selected neighborhoods of Iraq; in those
households reporting deaths since January 2002, the date, cause, and
circumstances of violent deaths were recorded."

* "Overall, the risk of death was 2.5 times greater after the invasion,
although the risk was 1.5 times higher if mortality around Fallujah (where
two-thirds of violent deaths were reported) is excluded. The investigators
estimate that a 1.5 times increase in deaths equates to an excess of 98,000
deaths relating to the Iraq conflict, although this estimate would be much
greater if Fallujah data is included."

For more information, contact at the Institute for Public Accuracy:
Sam Husseini, (202) 347-0020; or David Zupan, (541) 484-9167